Report “The Pantry Under Pressure: Anatomy of Food Inflation in Spain (2015–2025)”, prepared by EAE Business School
- The moderation of the CPI in 2025 is a statistical illusion: prices have not fallen, they have simply stopped rising at the same pace.
- Last year, the basic shopping basket rose by 30% compared to 2019.
- Families have reduced their purchases of high-quality protein foods, turning instead to cheap, processed carbohydrates.
- Food inflation hits low-income households three times harder, as they spend nearly 20% of their income on food, compared to 5% for high-income households.
Eating in Spain is now 40% more expensive than in 2021, even though the cost of living has only risen by half that amount, 20%. This gap highlights the loss of purchasing power among Spanish families in recent years, and is one of the main conclusions of the report “The Pantry Under Pressure: Anatomy of Food Inflation in Spain (2015–2025)”, prepared by EAE Business School, part of the Planeta Formación y Universidades higher education network. The study analyzes the evolution of food inflation, which has become structural over the past decade, decoupling from the general CPI, and examines its impact across the entire value chain, from the primary sector to the final consumer.
The business school’s report notes that, despite the moderation of the CPI in 2025 (standing at 2.9%), prices have not fallen but rather consolidated. According to the EAE Business School study, a “step effect” has occurred, meaning that the price levels of 2023–2024 will not reverse because the cost structure (labor, energy, and climate-related costs) has permanently changed. Therefore, the recovery of household purchasing power will depend solely on wages growing above this new consolidated price level.
This inflationary trend has intensified in recent weeks due to the international geopolitical context: “The war in the Middle East is driving global inflation by increasing the cost of oil and gas, with risks of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This raises transportation, fertilizer, and energy costs, pushing up the prices of food and consumer goods reaching the EU. It may also lead to higher interest rates and slow global—and particularly European—economic growth. The rise in natural gas prices (necessary for producing nitrogen fertilizers) and logistics costs drives up agricultural expenses, which in turn increases food prices. Threats to maritime navigation may also clog global supply chains, adding further costs,” notes Samer Ajour El Zein, author of the report and Vice Dean of Research at EAE Business School.
GAP AMONG SPANISH HOUSEHOLDS
A deeper look at the real impact of inflation on Spanish families and households also reveals major differences based on purchasing power. According to the business school, food inflation acts as a regressive tax that hits lower-income households three times harder, as they allocate nearly 20% of their income to food, compared to 5% for higher-income families. In this regard, by 2024, 9.1% of the population reported great difficulty making ends meet, with a risk of poverty or social exclusion rate of 25.8%. This underscores the importance of public aid for vulnerable families, since its removal could increase annual grocery costs by between €350 and €501 per household.
When segmenting the data, EAE Business School also found significant regional differences: Extremadura, Andalusia, and the Canary Islands (food-producing regions) show poverty risk rates above 30% and allocate more than 20% of their disposable income to food, compared to 12% in Navarre or the Basque Country.
The research also explores changes in healthy eating habits due to rising food prices, revealing a serious nutritional divide. The study finds that families have reduced their purchases of high-quality protein (such as fresh fish and beef, which have dropped by nearly 12%) and shifted toward cheap, processed carbohydrates, whose consumption has increased by 8%. In this context, the “healthy basket” has become 40% more expensive than the “survival basket,” effectively forcing low-income groups into an “obesogenic diet” due to economic necessity. This situation could lead to higher long-term healthcare costs associated with diet-related diseases.
A DISTRIBUTION CHAIN THAT SETS PRICES
“The Pantry Under Pressure: Anatomy of Food Inflation in Spain (2015–2025)” by EAE Business School also analyzes the food distribution sector in Spain. The market is highly concentrated, with the top five operators controlling more than 50% of market share. This structure was key in cushioning the initial inflationary shock by offsetting it with greater logistical efficiencies, although it also contributes to price-setting. On average, a product’s price multiplies nearly fourfold from farm to table.